tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30906992024-03-13T09:05:22.171-07:00James Hongjameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.comBlogger143125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-32659907021353667232023-06-05T12:11:00.002-07:002023-06-05T12:11:15.272-07:00Xiao Long Bao Inflation IndexUpdate to my tracking of the price of 16 Pork XLB at Nanxiang XLB in Shanghai.
1997: 4 RMB
2006: 8 RMB
2010: 12 RMB
2013: 20 RMB
2023: 33 RMB (25RMB for 12 pieces)
That is only a 5.1% inflation rate over the last 10 years, which is actually a big slowdown from previous measurements!
jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-30104737183426376422013-05-17T22:07:00.001-07:002017-12-27T17:26:56.560-08:00Xiao Long Bao Inflation Index updateIn 2006 and 2010, I logged the price of 16 "xiao long bao" (soup) dumplings at the restaurant Nanxiang, located in Shanghai. (This restaurant was the inventor of the tasty treat)<br />
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If you recall from my <a href="http://www.jhong.org/2010/05/xlb-index.html">previous post about this</a>, prices were:<br />
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1997: 4 RMB <br />
2006: 8 RMB<br />
2010: 12 RMB<br />
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This represented an annualized inflation rate of <b>8%</b> from 1997 to 2006, and an inflation rate of <b>10.67%</b> from 2006 to 2010.<br />
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I am (un)happy to report that the price in 2013 is now 20 RMB. From 2010 to 2013, this would represent an annual inflation rate of <b>18.67%</b><br />
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I mean this in the most unsarcastic way possible: Wow.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEbCLk0Swvaclf1R7pzawPcVSA71WxpN81Je2kzANndRuZsh4DS50C032FMQdRisYBNfKZDDvCD3K40rCw4cMKG-pk5Yqx7PlAbrf176gaXSLpSL1v9PYNtQE66RshaLi8vAWO/s1600/P1130521.JPG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEbCLk0Swvaclf1R7pzawPcVSA71WxpN81Je2kzANndRuZsh4DS50C032FMQdRisYBNfKZDDvCD3K40rCw4cMKG-pk5Yqx7PlAbrf176gaXSLpSL1v9PYNtQE66RshaLi8vAWO/s320/P1130521.JPG" /></a>jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-79941746489708040402012-09-24T09:31:00.000-07:002012-09-24T09:39:20.431-07:00Phone plan pricing trendsAfter 3 years with Nexus Ones, Julia and I decided it was finally time to get new phones. <br />
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In comparing pricing plans between all the US carriers, I noticed a few things that I found interesting. First is that carriers are shifting from a "metered voice and text / unlimited data" pricing structure to an "unlimited voice and text / metered data" pricing structure. These new "share plans" also recognize that people are going to connect lots of devices per person and are metering based on that (fixed cost per device). <br />
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The other thing I noticed is that AT&T and Sprint are now allowing facetime over 3G, and in general carriers are now ok with users using VOIP over their data networks. This makes sense as they are metering data.<br />
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I wonder if the carriers are figuring out that it's ok to go with this because: 1) people dont' have as strong a sense of how much data they use versus how many minutes they talk, so they will be more likely to overbuy, and 2) the trend in general is for data usage to go up as new bandwidth heavy applications come out over time (whereas there was not such trend for voice/text). That last one makes a big difference because it potentially builds in automatic ARPU growth, making carrier management's lives easier.<br />
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Which leads me to wonder about Sprint. Sprint still offers unlimited data plans AND they allow facetime over their network. Time will tell whether Sprint shift to metering data once their LTE network is rolled out.. in the meantime they are the ugly duckling that has to give a great deal just to scrape enough customers to survive. My guess is they will, but in the longer run, how long will it take for industry competition to lead to unlimited voice/text/data plans becoming the norm? Will that ever happen?jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-9177232788146936482012-09-07T20:00:00.000-07:002012-09-24T09:41:31.513-07:00Will this create even more downward pressure on Facebook stock?My friend Yishen Kuik of Katong Capital made a keen observation today..<br />
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Everyone knows that Eduardo Saverin, the Brazilian co-founder of Facebook, gave up his dual US citizenship just prior to the IPO of Facebook, and presently resides in Singapore. Lots of misinformed articles have been written about him as a tax dodger.<br />
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By leaving the US, he will trigger the Heroes Earnings Assistance and Relief Tax Act of 2008, which is Orwellian DoubleSpeak for an exit tax on 15% of his capital gains. The trouble is, when the Exit Tax is calculated, it is on the valuation of the stock on the date of renunciation. <br />
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No doubt Saverin was advised to time his renunciation prior to the IPO because most IPOs are engineered to pop and rise thereafter, <a href="http://blogmaverick.com/2012/09/04/facebook-handled-their-ipo-exactly-right/">as Mark Cuban is aware</a>. FB however did not perform thus, and has dropped 50% since. What this means is that Eduardo is down 65% from when he made his renunciation. In order to pay the 15% tax, if he hasn't already sold stock, he will now have to sell 30% of his stock to do so. Based on his 4% ownership of the company, this is about 1.2% of the shares outstanding. <br />
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Of course what is left is still sufficient to support several lifetimes of spending, that is <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmarshallcrotty/2012/02/21/allen-iverson-earned-over-200-million-in-his-nba-career-hes-now-broke-say-what/">unless you are an NBA basketball player</a> jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-25018936363792495322012-02-05T22:20:00.002-08:002012-02-05T22:28:09.432-08:00Some more political ads designed to cast Chinese as the enemyIn the past I've <a href="http://blog.jhong.org/2009/09/what-will-us-be-like-for-asian.html">written a bit</a> about how US politicians were starting to demonize Asians, and specifically Chinese (all look same anyway!)<br /><br />and of couse the well produced commercial about <a href="http://blog.jhong.org/2010/10/disturbing-video.html">a chinese professor lecturing to his students</a>.<br /><br />today this ad appeared during the Superbowl in Michigan. <br /><br /><iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/kxw4uZAezaI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe><br /><br />I also just saw this video from half a year ago for some dude that ran in Nevada for Congress<br /><br /><iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/XFsqkI5gg84" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-27748638999632557642012-01-11T22:55:00.000-08:002012-01-11T23:27:06.790-08:00"Search, Plus your World"This is probably stating the complete obvious, I know. <br /><br />Just a theory.. "Search, Plus your World" isn't about improving search, it's about getting people to start using Google+ more.<br /><br />In LinkedIn's early days, I remember a lot of people having profiles but nobody really using it that much. Then over time, Linkedin's Google juice went up and all of a sudden, whenever anyone googled themselves they saw their Linkedin profile.. so of course, out of vanity realizing other people would see their profile now, everyone thought "oh shit i better fill this page out more"<br /><br />So Google placing Google+ profiles high in default search results is maybe less about helping searchers find the best search result, and more about giving distribution to people's Google+ profiles so people are motivated to finally start using it more.<br /><br />If so, it's a smart move.<br /><br />update: I just noticed that Google puts a "Update your profile, it's only x% complete" link on the search results page when you google yourself.. To me, this pretty much confirms it. Google is smart.jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-43942161312926918022011-08-22T11:40:00.001-07:002011-08-22T12:35:28.259-07:00How I finally managed to start doing small exercises regularlyI've tried many times in the past to try and do some small exercises regularly, but i've never been able to keep it up for very long. 3 or 4 months ago, I went to a talk given by Dr. BJ Fogg, and experimental psychologist at Stanford.
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<br />He talked about behavior modification, and how in order to achieve it one needs 3 things: a Trigger to get you to think about the desired behavior, the Motivation to do it, and the Capability to do it. During his talk, he asked everyone in the audience to laugh and cheer whenever anyone's cell phone rang. This was quite interesting, he was connecting the desired behavior to something that had NOTHING to do with the behavior.
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<br />That night, I decided I would start doing wall squats for 2 minutes as I brushed my teeth (2 min is easy to time because I use a sonicare toothbrush which lasts 2 minutes). It's dead time anyway, i figured. This worked like a charm, twice a day I have been doing wall squats since I started. After a week of pain things started to get a lot easier, so I started using my wall squats as a trigger to do pull ups (search for the door gym on amazon), pushups, situps, and a few other things. All in all, it takes about 2 minutes in the morning and 10-15 minutes each night. After a month of that, I've started going to the gym again.
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<br />The point is, the trigger can be anything. By my own willpower, I've never been able to create a strong routine of doing any exercise, but in the end all it took was piggybacking on top of something I already do as a habit: brushing my teeth.jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-30914044135732617752011-03-19T09:05:00.000-07:002011-03-19T17:05:19.205-07:00Really excellent paperThis was a really good read. It describes perfectly how entrepreneurs approach building things.<br /><br />Gotta love the "Typical MBA Horseshit. The World in 4 Boxes" commentary too! Whoever marked this thing up is my hero.<br /><br /><a title="View What Makes Entrepreneurs Entrepreneurial on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/51111540/What-Makes-Entrepreneurs-Entrepreneurial" style="margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block; text-decoration: underline;">What Makes Entrepreneurs Entrepreneurial</a><br /><br />Update: commenter says it was Vinod Khosla who marked the paper up. Makes a lot of sense, Vinod is awesome!jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-57972027376992598962011-02-22T08:13:00.000-08:002011-02-22T08:54:44.392-08:00The price of democracy (to us)I am supportive of democracy in the Middle East, if true democracy can be achieved. While extremists grab the headlines and form our impressions, the average person in these countries want the same things everyone else wants: food, shelter, opportunity, a sense of future and hope for their children, friends, family, and peace. Systems of government in the Middle East that distribute the wealth of their resources can be stable. However, there's a lot that can go wrong between where we are now and such a utopian vision. It not likely to happen, because where there is oil there is power and where there is power there is corruption.<br /><br />What I really want to talk about is the price of these revolutions to those of us living in the rest of the world. <br /><br />Ever since they started pumping oil out of the ground in the Middle East, the western world and the US government in particular could give a damn about democracy in the region. All they wanted was stability and "their guys" in control so oil could be extracted at a good price. Have no doubt, half of the guys being toppled are "our" guys. Now that they are being ousted, it can only lead to oil becoming more expensive.<br /><br />This is bad news for our economy. As we learned in the 70s and in 2008, as energy prices rise, everything else falls. EVERYTHING. Energy is the basis of most of the technological leverage the world has created over the past 100 years. Google's servers need energy. Your cell phone needs energy. The food we eat requires a lot of energy, from fertilizer to pesticides to transporting that banana from south america to your plate. Energy is everywhere. If prices rise, expect everything to get a lot more expensive. Expect corporate profits and the stock market to fall. Expect real estate to fall. The only thing that might not fall is gold, due to the worldwide civil unrest that may ensue.jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-63108343274363449752011-02-13T17:46:00.000-08:002011-02-13T18:01:06.427-08:00Considering an out of state Pied-à-Terre? Think again!Well here we go. It's clear that States and Municipalities are in trouble. You hear examples about even here in the bay area. Half moon bay is considering disbanding their police department to avoid bankruptcy. I think I heard there was talk of even unincorporating there. San Carlos already disbanded their police department. Vallejo declared bankruptcy in 2008. <br /><br />The problem is that the municipalities can only be propped by the states for so long.. California is on track for a $25 Billion deficit this year... and neither the states or the cities have the ability to print money like the US government can.<br /><br />The only way to deal with this problem is to either scale local and state government down (expect crappier roads and lower quality of services) or to raise taxes. Expect both.<br /><br />In an astounding example of how aggressive states are getting (and this is likely just the beginning, check out this <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748703745704576136671394373928-lMyQjAxMTAxMDEwMTExNDEyWj.html">Wall Street Journal article</a>.<br /><br />Apparently NY is getting technical on their definition of what sort of residence can be excluded as a permanent residence. The generally accepted policy is that one owes taxes to a state only on income generated in the state even if they have a vacation house that they use less than 180 days a year. But apparently a vacation house must be a "mere camp or cottage".. so if like in the case mentioned it is deemed suitable as something someone could actually live in (in this case, an 1100 sq ft house), then NY feels it can now go after ALL income. <br /><br />In other words, because this family owns a house in NY, NY wants to tax them on all income on top of the taxes they are already paying in their home state on the same income. <br /><br />WOW. more to come i'm sure.jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-73973016865258097912011-02-12T13:06:00.000-08:002016-09-26T21:20:58.929-07:00Asianz have come a long way<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/RcmKbTR--iA" title="YouTube video player" width="640"></iframe><br />
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As I was growing up, asians in the US mass media were either depicted as hot subservient women that would make great newscasters or tekashi/long-duk-dong style nerds. Sure I played the violin (or piano) like every other asian kid too, but that didn't automatically make me an incompetent driving, accent sporting nerd.<br />
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There was a brief attempt in the 90's to change this, with Russell Wong getting his own show called the Vanishing Son , but 1) he's half asian and 2) he was still a martial arts expert. It was basically the show "Kung Fu" all over again, and it wasn't very good. There was also a rap group out of LA called the L.A. Boyz. They were pretty talented, but probably came to the conclusion that Asian rappers would never make it in the States in those days, so they had to go to Taiwan to build an audience.<br />
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So it's pretty cool to see a lot of Asians in the half generation behind me actually making it in the entertainment scene. One of my high school classmates, Tim Kang (pic left), is on some big CSI type show called the Mentalist.. and while I can't say that it is exactly my favorite show, it's nice to see that he isn't forced to fake an accent or anything. Is he a math whiz in the show or something that I don't know about? Also notable is John Cho from the Harold and Kumar series.. and even though he does play a somewhat anal asian stereotype, the dude likes to light up and that is new.<br />
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But the place you are really seeing it is in the music scene. I am a big fan of the MTV show America's Best Dance Crew, and quite consistently there are really strong asian teams on there. Many of them win. One of the members of the Black Eyed Peas is Filipino-American. The current lead singer of Journey is a Filipino dude that they actually discovered on YouTube. The reason I was just thinking about this is because I just realized that Far East Movement, the group that did that "Like A G6" and now "Rocketeer" song is a bunch of Asian dudes from LA. (In retrospect it should have been obvious they are Asian-Americans based on the name of their group, but the fact it wasn't probably says something).<br />
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I'm very happy to see this happening, and for once I think I will actually buy an album in order to support this effort. Anything to help erode lingering memories of Long Duk Hong ;) It's nice to think that Jackson will grow up in an environment where nobody's thinking he can't be cool because he's Asian.<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/9aCBB670Kwg" title="YouTube video player" width="480"></iframe>jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-3124705613875154832010-10-21T23:49:00.000-07:002010-10-21T23:51:17.005-07:00Disturbing videoYet another example of propaganda being put out that may contribute to racism against Chinese people (and Asians in general) in the US.<br /><br /><object width="640" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/OTSQozWP-rM?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/OTSQozWP-rM?fs=1&hl=en_US&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="385"></embed></object>jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-85844858262156456612010-10-11T17:00:00.000-07:002010-10-11T17:09:01.202-07:00US Politicians creating propaganda against the ChineseThe level of hypocrisy on Tim Geithner's part when he accuses China of manipulating its currency is astounding. The US is manipulating currency more than anyone else out there. It's no wonder the US is having a hard time rallying other countries to crack down on China on this issue. <br /><br />Tim is not the only one badmouthing the Chinese for political purposes. According to a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/10/us/politics/10outsource.html">NYT article</a>, China is now being scapegoated in a ton of political ads this season. As usual, these political ads exaggerate and take data out of context in order to create fear and anger, in hopes of drawing votes. For instance, they might claim that China has "stolen" x manufacturing jobs from the US, when in fact those jobs had already been exported long ago to countries like Taiwan.<br /><br />I speak a bit about where this kind of scapegoating can lead in a former <a href="http://blog.jhong.org/2009/09/what-will-us-be-like-for-asian.html">blog post</a>. It's not pretty.jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-20416964919529127792010-09-23T01:40:00.000-07:002010-09-23T02:28:33.644-07:00Random ramblings on #AngelgateHey everyone, I just got back from my yearlong world trip, and man have things changed!<br /><br />i was thinking a bit about the whole <a href="http://techcrunch.com/2010/09/21/so-a-blogger-walks-into-a-bar/">angelgate</a> thing. i think it boils down to the model that a successful angel has traditionally needed 2 things to be successful : 1) good dealflow and 2) skill at picking the right deals. <br /><br />Things like YC and naval's angel.co thing are having the effect of commoditizing the dealflow, making high quality deals accessible to way more people than in the past, making it so people who USED to make money just by having that dealflow exclusively now have to somehow become better deal pickers to maintain decent returns (since commoditizing the dealflow means valuations and terms get worse for investor as long as there is an excess supply of angel money out there)<br /><br />instead of trying to become better pickers, the angelgate people are trying to find ways to maintain the old status quo on deal economics. Recently, I started thinking maybe I would stop doing deals that had convertibles in them. And indeed I did start saying no to more deals. But despite that, I still chose to do a few more deals. <br /><br />the increased levels of transparency and the commoditization of dealflow make angel investing a lot more like investing in the public equity markets... the price you have to buy in may already be pumped up, the terms might not be as preferred, etc.. but IF you can pick the winners, it doesn't really matter. That's a big IF to rely on though!<br /><br />So all of this just means these angels need to become more picky on what deals they will do. This will no doubt have the effect of dropping valuations a bit too, which they should like. But then again, maybe a lot of the angel funds prefer doing lots of deals because like some VCs, they are starting to like the management fees a little too much? Basically, by having lower valuations out there, the angel funds don't have to be as choosy which enables them to deploy more capital faster -> more management fees. Nice little conspiracy theory, although my friend Vu points out to me that the majority of super angels are already set financially where the management fees are not as impt to them as they might be to a younger career vc.<br /><br />But honestly, I think there is nothing people can do about this. It's an increasing efficiency, not decreasing efficiency, that entrepreneurs have been raising prices... prices may have just been suppressed by the difficulty entrepreneurs used to have in identifying and meeting potential angel investors. It's basically like an auction house where all of a sudden, more people are being let in to the auction to bid. Of course prices are going to go up, so caveat emptor.<br /><br />So if you want to make money as an angel, you might have to take the shittier terms and just hope you are better at picking companies... or figure out a way to add value and get in cheaper, like YC does. (It's no wonder that YC is ok with these trends since they are still taking a decent chunk of the companies BEFORE the angel rounds.. and the fact that so many YC companies don't seem to regret it indicates it is probably a fantastic model). Maybe all the angels should pool their funds and just start a YC competitor.<br /><br />---<br /><br />If all the angel rounds are now being done at venture level valuations and scale, maybe this is a sign that angels are going to be squeezed out entirely.. Plenty of good vc firms are now willing to chip in 100-200k into startups just for what they perceive as the social obligation option value. Perhaps in a year, YC companies will just go direct to those vc's. So the new model becomes JOIN YC AND EAT RAMEN -> RAISE 500K FROM A FEW VC'S WHO DON'T MIND DOING LOTS OF SMALL NOTES FOR THE OPTION VALUE -> RAISE FULLER VENTURE ROUND. Angels might be getting squeezed out?<br /><br />---<br /><br />One friend who is a high profile angel mentioned to me that he hates convertibles because the long term/short term capital gains clock is delayed. That is a very valid point, although who knows when LT cap gains rates are going to raise back to the same as short term, the way the country is going.<br /><br />---<br /><br />The other thing kind of weird is that all these people who are being labeled as "angels" are actually VCs. If you are investing other people's money, you aren't an angel anymore, and especially if you are doing deals at the valuations these people are putting in at. <br /><br /><br />It will be interesting to see what happens if/when the economy and the public markets hit the shitter again though. A LOT of angels will pull out of doing deals, and things will start moving back towards the angel investor's favor (possibly just back to where this all started :) )jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-51039146557448446302010-08-21T15:42:00.000-07:002010-08-21T16:14:55.874-07:00Disappointing.. The Amazing Race makes stuff upOne of my favorite television shows is The Amazing Race, where teams race around the world, stopping in various cities and completing tasks to move forward. In the early seasons, it was an actual race where by the end, the leading team could be days ahead of previous teams. So to up the drama on the show and make the race closer, the producers started creating bunching points at which all teams would end up together again. An example of this is when the teams all have to take a flight that is 16 hours later, giving the lagging teams time to catch up.<br /><br />This has always bothered me a little, but I understand why the producers do this. But what I learned on my recent trip to Tallinn Estonia bothers me a lot more because it makes any content on the show suspect, at least as far as being a travel show.<br /><br />One of the tasks teams had to perform was to, "figure out how to open this door to Mustpeade, the secret layer of the Brotherhood of Blackheads". As you can see in the <a target=_new href=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPTMGw3WVnQ#t=10m30s>video, around 10:33</a>, there is a secret keyhole that opens the door to this "Secret Layer". Here's a screenshot from the video where a team finds the keyhole:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtgwulbqYTAjZY1Ocq8LLigLvCWfrpr3kQz6L343l7Tnp64mJNF4fyakKH1f7GwkFi_Fa44UX7TZZkOxWCoLZQua75KFgDU6Fno-WC_7qGkH_CBNbmH7d1dshCpNls56x2ZWMD/s1600/Screen+shot+2010-08-21+at+6.41.35+PM.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 600px; height: 450px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtgwulbqYTAjZY1Ocq8LLigLvCWfrpr3kQz6L343l7Tnp64mJNF4fyakKH1f7GwkFi_Fa44UX7TZZkOxWCoLZQua75KFgDU6Fno-WC_7qGkH_CBNbmH7d1dshCpNls56x2ZWMD/s400/Screen+shot+2010-08-21+at+6.41.35+PM.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5508002030085879634" /></a><br /><br />When we visited the building, we could find no mention of the brotherhood ever actually being a Secret. The producers made that part up to make the task seem more exciting! Furthermore, there was no hidden keyhole that opened the door, that was also made up. If you look at the picture above closely, you'll notice that the wall around the keyhole is a lot cleaner than the column to its left. So the keyhole was just created to go along with this "Secret Brotherhood" theme.<br /><br />Here is a picture we took of what the place really looks like: Notice that the column around where the keyhole should be has ridges, giving ample space to put in a fake keyhole and plaster over the ridges to make the column look smooth, as it does above.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyPVn6A96XQJQLiPoUBDuiBaT5_QqpUyehnZWIZ94Ypm0KUrOGzqxp8x7O97P6JYcvaHZC87YZ-Pcxyz7ZahZla93aAMLBQYTNKav2VQHOAznwIMXt6ROKfBOS3yDiPWekzIXe/s1600/Screen+shot+2010-08-21+at+6.57.51+PM.png"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 545px; height: 600px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyPVn6A96XQJQLiPoUBDuiBaT5_QqpUyehnZWIZ94Ypm0KUrOGzqxp8x7O97P6JYcvaHZC87YZ-Pcxyz7ZahZla93aAMLBQYTNKav2VQHOAznwIMXt6ROKfBOS3yDiPWekzIXe/s400/Screen+shot+2010-08-21+at+6.57.51+PM.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5508002034822945138" /></a><br /><br />I'll keep watching the Amazing Race because it is a fun show, and in the last few years we've visited many locations we might not have otherwise (like Tallin and Dubrovnik).. But it is a bit disappointing that Hollywood has to make up history just to make the show more exciting. Then again, they made up virtually the entire Facebook movie, so I guess it's standard practice.jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-51806925339117355922010-06-08T00:03:00.001-07:002010-06-08T13:16:39.325-07:00Is this the great flattening?The world is flattening, and what that means is that the people who used to live on the mountains are going to lose their beautiful views while the people living in caves underground are going to finally see daylight. In other words, as the world flattens things will get better for those who were doing worse, and worse for those who were doing better. (In the super long run, technology will still make life better for all, but that is a much longer term trend)<br /><br />Right now in the West we are seeing austerity packages being announced and horrible unemployment figures coming out while we are simultaneously seeing <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/08/business/global/08wages.html">Chinese wages rising</a>. it occurs to me.. perhaps this is all part of the great flattening. can we use the inevitability of flattening to model what is yet to happen?<br /><br />Yes, China will get hit by the crisis as well since the West is their major customer, but since their starting point in all of this is pretty low, they will still continue to strengthen in the long run as they educate more of their people and move up the value chain. The great flattening in the long run is a stronger force and tells you the longer term trend.<br /><br />As value shifts from the rich countries to the poorer countries, we in the west will see general deflation.. It is an inevitability as value shifts from West to East.. however as our government leaders try to fight this we will see them spend more and print ever increasing amounts of currency, ultimately leading to massive inflation. On the other flipside countries like China will see their currencies appreciate, and while that may cause some pain for them in the short to medium term, it will become less and less of an issue to them as their domestic consumption rises to replace dropping western demand for their products. This seems to fit well with the fact that their wages are rising.<br /><br />The main thing I am wondering is where prices land in the US as you have simultaneous deflation of assets vs. inflation from money print. The conclusion I come to is that prices will not come down too much (in nominal terms) because the government hates deflation (it drops tax revenue) so they will keep things at least flat by printing more money. However, as the world eventually settles down, all the money they printed will lead to massive amounts of inflation. They may be able to soak up some of those dollars to reduce this effect, but that would require raising rates and slowing down growth which would be politically very hard to do. My guess is that politicians always do what get them elected in the short term and they won't do as good a job stopping inflation as they have been in stopping deflation. Net result is I see prices fairly flat until the economy starts to pick up again, at which time we are in for some serious inflation. <br /><br />Anyway, just a bunch of random thoughts forced together, not sure everything I am saying is correct or even makes sense in any way.jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-90124637582762274972010-05-17T05:23:00.000-07:002013-05-17T22:12:49.526-07:00XLB Index<img src=http://twoseasmedia.com/images/allblogs/2006/ShanghaiCafe_soupdumplings_1.jpg><br />
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I visited Shanghai for the first time in 1997. It was then that I discovered the famous "Nanxiang Xiao Long Bao Restaurant". Xiao Long Bao are commonly known in the US as soup dumplings or steamed dumplings. They are exceedingly bad for you and exceedingly delicious.<br />
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I remembered this store in particular because they were so cheap too This famous store sold 16 pieces for 4RMB (about 50 cents at the time).Then next time I visited in 2006, the prices had risen so much in 9 years that I decided to take a picture of their menu. 16 pieces now cost 8 RMB. In reality this is about 8% inflation per year, which in a fast growing place like China is not surprising.<br />
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<a href='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV6-ko3EKEv1jZPoBXKBD_zdcXZ-MUFlwk-DelVbEffX1UUmnwl0nUuCBRs-bl0NWMnJfa762AA1ebk_9ADF6lROl_WiKEm3AbOR7RjTzTmmgpf5ppXXL1OcUyTtSlZvxa0uyX/s1600/beijing+059.jpg'><img src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV6-ko3EKEv1jZPoBXKBD_zdcXZ-MUFlwk-DelVbEffX1UUmnwl0nUuCBRs-bl0NWMnJfa762AA1ebk_9ADF6lROl_WiKEm3AbOR7RjTzTmmgpf5ppXXL1OcUyTtSlZvxa0uyX/s320/beijing+059.jpg' border='0' alt='' /></a><br />
(2006 - 16 pieces cost 8RMB)<br />
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This year prices have risen to 12 RMB per 16 pieces, or about 10.67% annualized inflation rate.<br />
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<a href='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2SVOKWpdgs6OEYda1RS4btnyxVowQabHtotquxuosPT9nrL8CgRHWbkljHBBvQ0Jx_p-JUqGMLA9SLVCc60P_dJu3Vo3iARpzW-pYizlprapzEBqyJgCf_UvZPQkuQruTUaTw/s1600/P1040468.JPG'><img src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2SVOKWpdgs6OEYda1RS4btnyxVowQabHtotquxuosPT9nrL8CgRHWbkljHBBvQ0Jx_p-JUqGMLA9SLVCc60P_dJu3Vo3iARpzW-pYizlprapzEBqyJgCf_UvZPQkuQruTUaTw/s320/P1040468.JPG' border='0' alt='' /></a> <br />
(2010 - 16 pieces cost 12 RMB)<br />
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The bigger realization is how much a number as small as "10%" compounds. Can you imagine what life would be like if we experienced 10% inflation in the US? I checked interest rates at local banks and they were fairly low, comparable to the US.. no wonder the equity and stock markets have been such a bubble over the last 10 years in China!! putting the money in the bank is akin to throwing it away.jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-68542782353799405192010-03-21T18:40:00.000-07:002010-03-21T18:46:42.093-07:00My letter to Vivek WadhwaI recently tweeted the following: <br /><br />"I disagree with almost every TC post i've ever read by Vivek Wadhwa. Financial incentives < Cultivating real interest <a href="http://tr.im/RPT3">http://tr.im/RPT3</a>"<br /><br />It looks like I was not the only one: <br /><br />"@VCMike: RT @shervin: RT @rabois his posts are garbage. RT @georgezachary RT @jhong :disagree w/TC posts i've ever read by Vivek Wadhwa"<br /><br />Today I got an email from Mr. Wadhwa:<br /><br />"James, I cherish criticism because I always learn from this. Would love to lean what you disagree with about my posts. Here is my latest: <a href="http://techcrunch.com/2010/03/20/integrating-ethics-into-the-core-of-your-startups-why-and-how/">http://techcrunch.com/2010/03/20/integrating-ethics-into-the-core-of-your-startups-why-and-how/</a> "<br /><br />Here was my response, I thought i'd post it here on my blog too:<br /><br />Hi Vivek,<br /><br />Sure, I am happy to provide some feedback.<br /><br />WRT to your latest post, there is not too much to disagree with the<br />concept that strong corporate values can help companies endure. I<br />think most people understand that ethical behavior leads to trust,<br />which is a cornerstone of sustainability. I whole heartedly agree with<br />the concept that companies and people should operate ethically. That<br />is, for example, why I was against the scamville offers<br />(<a href="http://techcrunch.com/2009/11/01/scamville-hotornot-plentyoffish-facebook-myspace/">http://techcrunch.com/2009/11/01/scamville-hotornot-plentyoffish-facebook-myspace/</a>)<br /><br />I'm not sure you successfully make that point in your article though.<br />The data you provide just shows that of companies that were Forbes 100<br />in 1917, most did not survive. Then you imply based on his statements<br />about which financial companies survived in 2008 that this was the<br />same reason for the older companies failing. But you offer no proof of<br />that, and you don't cite anyone's research that proves this specific<br />point.<br /><br />The other issue I have with this article is that it's not clear the<br />behavior of subprime lending was unethical. Having a short term focus<br />and making bad loans was ultimately unsustainable and in retrospect a<br />bad business decision, but it is a bit of a cop out academically to<br />say that they are inherently unethical. Seems a bit like you are<br />pandering to a populist audience that presumes that the recession is<br />only the bank's fault and not their own as well (for borrowing in an<br />irresponsible manner or for having a short-term mentality themselves<br />when voting for politicians.)<br /><br />Are people who took subprime loans unethical, or just unwise? People<br />adapt to the environment and the rules setup around them.. a lot of<br />the mess we are in I attribute more to bad public policy decisions..<br />but even then, I would not call Alan Greenspan unethical, I think he<br />just made very bad decisions.<br /><br />If you had just said "these companies failed because they had short<br />term mentalities and didn't want to hear anything about it from their<br />employees" that would have been easier to digest. I think your recipe<br />for framing things has too many parts sensationalism and not enough<br />parts substantiation.<br /><br />Incidentally, I do think there are things some banks have done that<br />have been fairly unethical. I just don't think you listed any of them.<br /><br />WRT your last post, which was the debate with craig barrett, my<br />fundamental problem with it was that I believe that the passion and<br />obsessive thinking needed to make technical breakthroughs are<br />typically the behavior of people who are genuinely interested in their<br />subject matter. You can pay a person to become a scientist and do<br />their job, but you can't pay a person to care.. and my gut tells me<br />that the people who care are the good ones. If you look at history,<br />you will find that scientist have not traditionally been wealthy.<br /><br />What motivated the team that put men on the moon was the challenge and<br />the glory, not the payoff. That's not to say that large prizes do not<br />serve as a fun incentive (ala x-prize) and focus/coordinate collective<br />efforts, but the root of the problem is not one of financial<br />incentives. Kids don't go around saying they don't like math because<br />there's no money in it.<br /><br />If you get someone interested in a subject at an early age, they will<br />think about the subject whether there is money in it or not.. and in<br />some pretty cool cases, those people might not even care about the<br />money when it IS there for them, as is the case of Dr. Perelman of<br />Russia who recently solved one of the greatest math problems but has<br />shunned publicity and possibly a one million dollar prize (<br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/21/science/21award.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/21/science/21award.html</a>)<br /><br />If you believe otherwise, I'm afraid you are spending a bit too much<br />time with MBAs and not enough time with the people you are actually<br />writing about.<br /><br />Best Regards,<br />Jamesjameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-84323586532832748112010-03-18T18:43:00.000-07:002010-03-18T19:23:52.249-07:00Fat versus Lean StartupBen Horowitz <a href="http://voices.allthingsd.com/20100317/the-case-for-the-fat-startup/">wrote a good piece </a>over at All Things D, in response to all the startups that try to go lean (keeping expenses as low as possible and raising as little money as possible too).<br /><br />A lot of companies I have been involved with have faced the question of whether to go Fat or go Lean. My opinion is that, like most things, it really depends on what your goals are, and there is not one blanket answer that fits all situations. As usual, you will have to think about it.<br /><br />HOTorNOT was probably one of the earliest lean companies in the post web 1.0 crash era. But that is not to say that we didn't consider whether it made sense to raise venture capital, or at the very least to start spending more of our earnings aggressively. For us, there were a lot of questions of what "going big" on HOTorNOT would have returned. We tried "getting fatter" by starting work on other non-HOTorNOT projects, but we then found that we couldn't mentally juggle so many products at the same time. In retrospect, what we should have done is invest in those projects but spin them off into separate companies (with separate offices) quickly. In those days, having capital was a distinct competitive advantage, we really missed the boat on taking advantage of that.<br /><br />Going lean optimizes short term earnings, but it does so at the expense of long term growth.<br /><br />All the points Ben makes are correct if there is some really big opportunity out there, provided you want to take the risks needed to capture it. If your financial goals are to only make a few million bucks but with less risk, then going lean can make a lot of sense. If this is the case, then DON'T RAISE VENTURE CAPITAL. If your goal is to create something big, to create and/or capture a huge emerging market, then you need to go big on spending (or in better terms, on investing), and probably will need venture capital to do it.<br /><br />It is very possible that the markets will crash again sometime soon, and capital will become more scarce. (It's also possible that the govt will continue propping up the system and the markets won't crash, and venture will be fine.. but my personal beliefs don't lie in this camp). For this reason, I've told most of the companies that I'm involved in that if they want to go big, they should raise big now while they still can. If a crash happens, capital will again become a massive competitive advantage.<br /> <br />To summarize: <br /><br />Want to make a nice little company that optimizes for earnings? go lean.<br /><br />Want to change the world and go big? go fat.<br /><br />BTW, going fat doesn't mean spending your money stupidly, you should still watch closely how your company spends its money. going fat is more about being willing to make those investments, and being willing to raise more money to do so.jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-17324104991897638632010-02-24T21:13:00.000-08:002010-02-24T21:15:43.068-08:00Birds would do better on "Let's make a Deal" than humans!This is very interesting! Apparently birds understand Bayes Theorem better than humans do!<br /><br />via kevin lewis.<br /><br />---<br /><br />Are birds smarter than mathematicians? Pigeons (Columba livia) perform<br />optimally on a version of the Monty Hall Dilemma<br /><br />Walter Herbranson & Julia Schroeder<br />Journal of Comparative Psychology, February 2010, Pages 1-13<br /><br />Abstract:<br />The “Monty Hall Dilemma” (MHD) is a well known probability puzzle in which a<br />player tries to guess which of three doors conceals a desirable prize. After<br />an initial choice is made, one of the remaining doors is opened, revealing<br />no prize. The player is then given the option of staying with their initial<br />guess or switching to the other unopened door. Most people opt to stay with<br />their initial guess, despite the fact that switching doubles the probability<br />of winning. A series of experiments investigated whether pigeons (Columba<br />livia), like most humans, would fail to maximize their expected winnings in<br />a version of the MHD. Birds completed multiple trials of a standard MHD,<br />with the three response keys in an operant chamber serving as the three<br />doors and access to mixed grain as the prize. Across experiments, the<br />probability of gaining reinforcement for switching and staying was<br />manipulated, and birds adjusted their probability of switching and staying<br />to approximate the optimal strategy. Replication of the procedure with human<br />participants showed that humans failed to adopt optimal strategies, even<br />with extensive training.jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-44275773936746707522009-11-25T23:27:00.000-08:002009-11-25T23:38:20.997-08:00Chinese Pollution<a href="http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazing-pictures-pollution-in-china/"><img src=http://www.chinahush.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/20091020luguang222.jpg></a><br /><br />An incredibly saddening set of photos taken of the environmental destruction taking place in China. This pollution is driven by a relentless desire for more profits, but also by my demand for new iphones, Macs, etc.. <br /><br />Yours too, none of us are innocent.<br /><br />Take a peek: <a href="http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazing-pictures-pollution-in-china/">http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazing-pictures-pollution-in-china/</a><br /><br />I'm not quite sure how the world can reverse this cycle. For China, perhaps it will require another socialist revolution. There is also a fascinating interview of the photographer, where he points out that to most of those affected, there has been no "economic development". The spoils of this destruction have gone to the few, while the poor masses are left to suffer.<br /><br />That interview can be found here: <a href="http://www.chinahush.com/2009/11/11/interview-with-lu-guang-the-photographer-of-pollution-in-china/">"http://www.chinahush.com/2009/11/11/interview-with-lu-guang-the-photographer-of-pollution-in-china/</a><br /><br />What are we going to do about this? What can be done?jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-17216573105214002832009-09-24T17:34:00.001-07:002009-09-24T17:39:50.920-07:00HallelujahJulian Robertson (founder of Tiger Management) talks about our economy. He gets it dead on. In order to even possibly recover, the American public needs to demand politicians for pain. Unless Americans understand that we can't have something for nothing, and the lifestyle we've become accustomed to over the last 30 years is NOT what we deserve nor is it sustainable, we and our US Dollar are going to be toast. <br /><br />Unfortunately, I am not particularly optimistic about spoiled children realizing they are spoiled and asking their parents for more discipline. When does that ever happen?<br /><br /><object id="cnbcplayer" height="380" width="400" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0"><br /><param name="type" value="application/x-shockwave-flash"><br /><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true"><br /><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><br /><param name="quality" value="best"><br /><param name="scale" value="noscale"><br /><param name="wmode" value="transparent"><br /><param name="bgcolor" value="#000000"><br /><param name="salign" value="lt"><br /><param name="movie" value="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1274981993/code/cnbcplayershare"><br /><embed name="cnbcplayer" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" bgcolor="#000000" height="380" width="400" quality="best" wmode="transparent" scale="noscale" salign="lt" src="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1274981993/code/cnbcplayershare" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"></embed><br /></object>jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-34277234398581752182009-09-04T23:55:00.000-07:002009-09-05T02:36:10.035-07:00What will the US be like for Asian Americans over the next 50 years?A country's economy lies in shambles. Debt owed based on a decade or two of bad behavior have crippled the country. Unemployment reaches extreme levels never seen before, hyperinflation starts to rear its ugly head based on the government's decision to print more and more money. <br /><br />Is this a description of where the US is headed? Quite possibly. <br /><br />But it's also a description of the Weimar Republic, also known as Germany from post World War I through the ascension of Adolph Hitler (who unofficially but effectively ended the Weimar Republic and began the Third Reich via the passage of the Enabling Act which rendered their parliament impotent)<br /><br />A nation depressed, under debt loads inconceivable of ever being paid off... and who could the Germans blame but themselves?<br /><br />Aha, but that's the problem. It's almost human nature not to ever blame yourself. It's much easier to blame others, especially when your peers are doing it too. A psychological scapegoat is needed, the perfect defense mechanism. It was this energy of the people that Hitler captured so adeptly that led to his spectacular rise in power. <br /><br />Anyone who has studied cults understands this, because it's the same thing. Take people who are downtrodden, likely with low self esteem. Put them together in a group. Tell them it's not their fault, it's the god damn [insert common enemy].<br /><br />In the case of the Nazis, the common enemies were the Allied nations who imposed the Treaty of Versailles upon the Weimar Republic (basically made them pay back for all the damages from World War I ), and of course mixed in with that was a healthy dose of anti-semitism. <br /><br />So let's say the US economy does collapse further. (Some people believe we have recovered. Others believe the current recovery is not real and point to the fact that the stock market recovered by similar amounts during the Great Depression just before the second wave hit. In either case, for this scenario, let's presume that things do get worse.) There are a lot of arguments being made that inflation, and perhaps hyperinflation, are down the road for the US. Regardless of the inflation/deflation argument, it is hard to argue with the fact that unemployment is at an extremely high level right now, and it is still increasing.<br /><br />This leads to a POTENTIAL scenario that the general mood in the US will match that of Weimar Republic citizens. At that point, all that is needed is an extremist leader who is willing to point fingers at an appropriate common enemy...<br /><br />... and who is the most likely common enemy going to be? Take a look at this video:<br /><br /><object width="640" height="505"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/rRY5waZ4IbE&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/rRY5waZ4IbE&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="505"></embed></object><br /><br /><br />This video is not about Asians, but rather about the United States Debt Crisis... but with the mention of China in the pledge and the focus on China when the person says the US owes money to "Foreign Governments", it's not hard to figure out who the best common enemy is going to be. Of course, it's going to be the people we owe money to, and more importantly, to the people who are doing well in the face of us not doing well.<br /><br />Of course, the Chinese can hardly be blamed for our bad behavior right? Even if that's true, at some point in time the Chinese have made it fairly clear that they would like to see the US Dollar not be the world reserve currency anymore. They are already shifting their reserves away from the dollar (in relative terms, not yet absolute). Some day, they may drop what they themselves refer to as "the nuclear option" by basically abandoning the US Dollar completely in a move to make the Chinese RenMinBi the world's reserve currency.<br /><br />Keep in mind, I am not saying that this scenario is likely, but it is definitely a possibility... and that action would only make it easier to blame the Chinese.<br /><br />I am reminded of the stories I read in the late 80's and early 90's about anti-Japanese violence in the midwest. That was when American jobs in the car factories really started getting lost to the Japanese, and movies like Gung Ho started coming out. As an Asian American growing up in those days, the attempts to ridicule and emasculate asian males were quite obvious. Goodbye Bruce Lee, Hello Long Duk Dong. <br /><br />If this scenario plays out, there's a chance that the United States is not going to feel like a very welcoming melting pot for Asians. In a country that has a history of racism, and policies that were entirely race based (Japanese Internment Camps, harsh anti-immigration laws targeting asians, slavery), it's not hard to imagine a bleak future for my son. The Japanese internment camps were less than 70 years ago. And I was shocked to hear a neighbor of mine make a subtly racist comment a few days ago, which led me to the realization that she was probably 20 years old in the 1960's.. which means she grew up in a country fraught with racist attitudes. Somehow, living in San Francisco had made me somewhat oblivious to racism. It was saddening to have that veil lifted.<br /><br />A massive amount of value and jobs created by companies founded or cofounded by immigrants in this country (for example: Google, Paypal, Intel, eBay, Nvidia, and Yahoo.. and before you start saying it is a recent tech phenomenon, let me also mention Dupont, Proctor and Gamble, Pfizer, and US Steel). Making things hard for immigrants in the US may lead to a negative feedback loop where fewer immigrants leads to less innovation and fewer jobs created, which in turn increases racism, which leads to fewer immigrants, [REPEAT].<br /><br />So as I prepare to go on my <a href="http://world.jhong.org">year long trip around the world</a>, the way in which I view my trip has taken an added dimension. Unfortunately, I'm no longer just going abroad to see what life is like in other countries, I'm also contingency planning an escape route. <br /><br />I was born in this country and love being here, so I really hope this scenario is wrong.. I think the odds of things playing out this way are low, but it is clearly not impossible.jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-76969991332564674402009-08-11T02:48:00.001-07:002009-08-11T17:54:02.076-07:00The J3 World Domination Tour<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/2C7l9NeQFqs&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/2C7l9NeQFqs&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0xe1600f&color2=0xfebd01" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object><br /><br />I somehow managed to convince Julia not to go back to her job post-maternity leave and instead plan a year long trip living in various cities around the world.<br /><br />The thinking is that it'll be hard to do this sort of thing as Jackson and any future kids get older, and hey, you only live once.. and life is short... and any other cliched rationalization we can think of :)<br /><br />The places we are visiting are a little bit more tame than we would have preferred, but we had to incorporate the fact that we will be traveling with a baby! Here is our current itinerary:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">NY</span>: Oct 1 - Nov 27<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Sydney</span>: Nov 29 - Jan 22<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">New Zealand</span>: Jan 22 - Feb 13<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Singapore</span>: Feb 13 - April 8<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Hong Kong</span>: April 8 - April 11<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">TaIpei and Penghu</span>: April 11 - April 21<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Shanghai</span>: April 21 - May 15<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Barcelona</span>: May 15 - June 26<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">TBD</span>: June 26 - July 13<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Amsterdam</span>: July 13 - Sept 7<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">TBD</span>: Sept 7 - ?<br /><br />The schedule is subject to change, especially for the European portion.. subject to weather, how we are feeling, and any wild swings in the the Euro-Dollar exchange rate! The around the world ticket that we bought actually starts on the Sydney leg, so we can technically extend our trip until November 26 I think.<br /><br />We are hoping that friends show up and visit, so do not disappoint us! Some friends we expect to see more now that we are joining their jet-set lifestyles.. You know who you are!! :P<br /><br />We're gonna post updates of the trip at <a href=http://world.jhong.org>http://world.jhong.org</a>jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3090699.post-26353678492419024602009-05-16T14:56:00.000-07:002009-05-16T15:01:38.552-07:00More on HappinessA couple of years ago, I wrote a short blog post about happiness where I said that <a href=http://blog.jhong.org/2007/02/how-to-stay-happy.html>happiness = reality - expectations</a>. My basic point was that as long as you have low expectations from things, you are more bound to be pleasantly surprised (and happy) than disappointed.<br /><br />There's a fascinating piece in The Atlantic about a Harvard study that has been going for 72 years now, following the lives of 200+ men. The paper talks a bit about what variables made for happier people. Below is a short clip of the current leader of the study (for 42 years). I highly recommend people watch it and read the article!<br /><br /><embed src="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f8/1460906593" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashVars="videoId=22804415001&playerId=1460906593&viewerSecureGatewayURL=https://console.brightcove.com/services/amfgateway&servicesURL=http://services.brightcove.com/services&cdnURL=http://admin.brightcove.com&domain=embed&autoStart=false&" base="http://admin.brightcove.com" name="flashObj" width="486" height="412" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" swLiveConnect="true" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed>jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10683513169776386015noreply@blogger.com3